https://twitter.com/spoonamore/status/1517510440598843394
On the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant explosion and fire. On Twitter I mostly post on Data Security (20 years as a CxO and votehacking). But I also have 9 years as CEO and longer on BODs of advanced materials / nano materials.
The extreme damage, perhaps total destruction of this chemical plant is going to have a spectacular and massive impact on the Russian army. Possibly grinding entire systems to a stop in weeks, perhaps even days.
Like many industrial sectors in Russia, they tend to be centralized, massive and singular. This is generally a result of historic centralization of production under the Soviet model, and a fear of building massive high-cost infrastructure by non-Russian firms BASF, DuPont etc.
At one of my prior firms, bid products from this plant. AFAIK, they are the only maker of a huge range of solvents and reactives of this kind in W. Russia. See here: https://www.dcpt.ru/production/prochie-produkty/
Among the products this plant made are the additives needed for advanced rocket/jet fuels, treatments/solvents for servicing metal parts, core input chemicals for explosive and solvents/traces/washes needed to manufacture electronics and circuits. This plant, was a PROCESS CRITICAL Tier 2/3 supplier to dozens/hundreds of suppliers for everything needed in war. For those who may think Tier 1/2s will have stock on hand; Nope. At most 2-3 weeks as these are VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds) that die on the shelf.
I will provide a Domestic Example. In mid 2020 Midland MI had a 100 year flood and a massive local dam failure. That flood knocked out DOZENS of 1-of-a-kind US Specialty Chemical processes centered in that area. My firms, and hundreds of others had to scramble for global backfill. It took 18+ months of global fill-in sourcing for US firms to stabilize post Midland Floods and US Production still has not fully recovered. Sanctions on Russia will prevent them from doing the same. I am certain in every corner of Russian industry is in full panic.
If this chemical plant fire is as bad as it appears, this will not be a long war. Russia has lost a unique key tool it needs to make war. If you have not seen the fire, or know what I am talking about... here is the Mirror's coverage... https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-russias-biggest-chemical-plant-26767453
Of course the solution to this issue will likely be China. I am sure they are likely scrambling to backfill/replace Russia as I type, but that is going to be complicated on a numerous levels.
